MAGIC-DISCOVER geolocated visualization

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FROM: Alan Scrivener, Human Interface Prototypes
  TO: David Warner, Mindtel, LLC
DATE: 11-30-01 [last update 11-29-01 9:27 PM]
  RE: progress report, Magic/Discover Project

First of all I want to say what a priveledge it is to be able
to participate in this project, and to contribute my skills to
the defense of San Diego, America and the world.

Prior to Sep. 11th I was already accumulating information on Biotech
companies for the purpose of marketing my business services to them,
and just because I enjoy geography, dabble in GIS and have a GPS
receiver, I was acquiring the coordinates for each location.

This already caused my focus to mainly be on the "golden traingle"
region of San Diego and La Jolla, roughly defined as everything
within a mile of the triangle formed by I-5, I-805 and Cal-52.

street map of the golden triangle of San Diego and La Jolla

After the Sep. 11th and the beginning of the anthrax attacks,
I offered my services to Dave Warner at Mindeltel for San Diego
homeland security, specifically the biotech assets.

Progress so far has included:

Receiving software and data from others on the Magic/Discover
project, especially the Hawaii data gathering, and testing
and exploring with what I have received.

Receiving NetaTools software and Thing hardware, learning to
use it and teaching it to others just to be sure.

Participating in architecture and rendering design discussions via email.

Discovering sources of satellite photo data and learning how it
is organized, and experimenting with it.



7 and 1/2 minute "quads" of San Diego, as defined by USGS



terraserver mosaic photos of the golden triangle of San Diego and La Jolla



higher-res terraserver mosaic photos of the golden triangle of San Diego and La Jolla

Using the AVS software environment on Linux to rapidly prototye
data displays and to do usability studies.



AVS flow network editor


Experimenting with parater-controlled rendering of 3D primitives
in AVS.



parameter-driven torus module in AVS allows control of size, two radius values, number of facets, color, texture and orientation

Experimenting with plotting 3D primitives on satellite photo data,
to understand issuses of callibration and scaling.



colored sphere primitives plotted aginst terraserver mosaic photos of the golden triangle

Currently planning to plot non-sensitive data with obvious analogies
to bio-threat scenarios: location of fast-food restaurants in golden
triangle and nutritional value of their foods, visualized as linked colored rings.



sketch of plan to visualize nutrtion of fast foods in golden triangle as linked rings

Researching ways to represent uncertainty in data, such
as this paper found at the IEEE Visualization Conference 2001 in San Diego.



illustration and caption from Visualizing 2D
Probability Distributions from EOS Satellite Image-Derived
Datasets: A Case Study by Kao, Dungan and Pang, IEEE Visualization 2001


 Researching the history of probability theory and its roots in
gambling, to look for ways to represent uncertainty.  Found (on a side
trip while in Las Vegas for the COMDEX computer conference) a museum
of antique slot machines and got some books about them.



antique slot machines show evolution of design

from single "wheel of fortune" to three-reeled "one-armed bandit"

This lead to several ideas.

Came up with way to visualize probablities from 0.1 to 1.0
as a pie chart that changes over time.  On-line help for this
display will show the pie spinning like a wheel of fortune.



proposal to visualize probablities from 0.0 to 1.0 as pie slices

In the book: Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences by
John Allen Paulos, he introduces the concept of a Richter Scale
of Risk, the log to base 10 of the odds against.  A 1 in 1000
chance of death has a Risk Factor of 3.

from A Richter Scale for Risks:


    Professor John Paling, a former Oxford University biologist now
    working as a risk analyst in the States, believes that half-
    understood health scares will periodically dominate the media
    until we develop an accessible means of quantifying relative risks.

    He has formulated a Richter Scale For Risks as a way of putting
    anxieties into perspective. "In order for the public to understand
    the relative levels of risk, there must be some way of comparing
    new levels of risk in daily life and those we are already familiar
    with", he said.

    He got the idea when he saw a woman smoking while trying to find
    out the benefits of buying a water-purification kit.

(See also A lifetime of risk.)

Came up with idea of representing small risks as a slot machine display.
As in "Dungeons and Dragons" role playing games, one must randomly get
a number higher than the risk number to avoid the risk.  The number
of reels is a rough approximation of the Richter Scale of Risk.



proposal to visualize small probablities (less than 10%) as slot machine displays

When the media report survey results and risk factor, they often talk about "margin of error."  But statisticians tell us there is a second important number, which is the confidence level, a probablity from 0 to 1.

From a glossary of social statistics:

    confidence interval

    The range within which it can be inferred that a population mean
    lies, with some specified degree of confidence. For example, the
    95 per cent confidence interval is the range within which we can
    be confident that the population mean can be found. It is equal
    to the sample mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors.

    confidence level

    The probability that a population mean lies within an interval.
    For example, at the 95 per cent confidence level, the population
    mean lies within plus or minus 1.96 standard errors of the sample
    mean (see confidence interval).

Came up with the idea of combining the pie chart and slot machine visulaizations, to show both confidence interval and confidence level.

Continuing to acquire data on potential targets in San
Diego and add to geographical database.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Acculaser
Acon Laboratories
ActivX Biosciences, Inc.
Advanced Targeting Systems, Inc.
Advanced Tissue Sciences
Agouron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Pfizer Co.
Alaris Medical Systems
Alexion Antibody Technologies, Inc.
Alliance Pharmaceutical Corp.
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Anadys Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ancile Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
AndroScience Corp.
antennas for KFMB-TV 8, KGTV 10, KGTV-DT 25, KFMB-DT 55
Applied Gene Technologies
Applied Molecular Evolution - AME
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Arizeke Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ATOPIX Pharmaceuticals Corporation
Aurora Biosciences Corporation
Avanir Pharmaceuticals
Avanir Pharmaceuticals
Aventa Biosciences Corp.
Aviva Biosciences
Axiom Biotechnologies, Inc.
BD Biosciences PharMingen
Biopraxis, Inc.
Biosite Diagnostics Inc.
Biota, Inc.
CancerVax Corporation
Canji, Inc.
Celgene Corp., Signal Research Division
Cell Genesys
Ceregene, Inc.
Chromagen, Inc.
Chugai Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.
CIStem Molecular Corporation
Collateral Therapeutics, Inc.
Conforma Therapeutics
Cortex Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Corvas Int'l
County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agancy
Cypress Biosciences, Inc.
Cyternex, Inc.
CyThera, Inc.
Dermatrends Inc.
Digirad Corporation
Digital Gene Technologies Inc.
Diversa
DuPont Pharmaceuticals Research Laboratories
eBiosciences
Egea Biosciences, Inc.
Elan Pharmaceuticals
Elitra Pharmaceuticals
Endonetics
Immusol, Inc.
Invitrogen Corporation
Jack in the Box Inc.
National Steel and Shipbuilding Company (NASSCO),
  one of three shipyards in the Marine Systems group of
  General Dynamics Corporation
San Diego Fire Communications/Dispatch Center
San Diego Fire Repair Facility
San Diego Fire Station 9
San Diego Fire Station 21
San Diego Fire Station 24
San Diego Fire Station 27
San Diego Fire Station 28
San Diego Fire Station 35
San Diego Fire Station 36
San Diego Fire Station 41
San Diego Fire Station 44
San Diego Police, Northern Division
San Diego Police, Carmel Valley Storefront
San Diego Police, Clairemont Storefront
San Diego Police, Pacific Beach Storefront
San Diego Police, La Jolla Satellite
San Diego Police, La Jolla Satellite
Structural GenomiX
Tx Selective Genetics